A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the source for the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
